The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Houston Rockets are just 100-105-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record100-105-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size205 games
ROI-6.9%
Units Won-14.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-9-00.0%-10.2%
20158-7-00.0%+1.8%
201612-10-00.0%+4.1%
201710-8-00.0%+6.1%
20185-12-00.0%-43.9%
20199-10-00.0%-9.6%
20209-9-00.0%-4.5%
20214-12-00.0%-52.3%
202215-9-00.0%+19.3%
20237-12-00.0%-29.7%
202413-7-00.0%+24.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles following victories stem from their young core's inconsistent emotional regulation and the franchise's developmental priorities over short-term results. Houston's roster, built around emerging talents like Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, often experiences the natural highs and lows that come with inexperience. After securing wins, particularly against quality opponents, this young group tends to lose focus and intensity in the subsequent game, leading to flat performances that fail to cover spreads. The team's coaching staff under Ime Udoka has prioritized player development and experimentation with rotations, which can create inconsistency in game-to-game preparation and execution. Following wins, the Rockets often face the challenge of maintaining the same energy level, especially when transitioning from emotional victories to what might appear as "easier" matchups on paper. Houston's pace-heavy style compounds this issue, as their up-tempo approach requires sustained mental engagement. When that focus wanes after a victory, their defensive rotations suffer and offensive execution becomes sloppy, creating value for opponents and bettors backing against them. This trend carries the most weight when the Rockets are coming off upset victories or emotional home wins, particularly against playoff-caliber teams where the letdown effect is most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as after a win?

The Houston Rockets have gone 100-105-0 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.8% ATS win rate over 205 games.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets after a win has not been profitable, showing a -6.9% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors following this trend.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rockets' 48.8% ATS win rate after wins is slightly below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. The -6.9% ROI suggests this trend has performed worse than random chance would predict.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.