Golden State Warriors Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Golden State Warriors in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Golden State Warriors hold a record of 16-11-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +13.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $4 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2021 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Warriors' success as small underdogs stems from their unique ability to flip the script when expectations are slightly lowered. When Golden State enters as a narrow underdog, they're typically facing quality opponents on the road or dealing with minor roster concerns, yet these scenarios often unleash their most dangerous version. The team's championship DNA kicks in when they're not heavily favored, creating a perfect storm of focus and execution. Steve Kerr's system thrives when his players feel they have something to prove. The Warriors' three-point variance becomes less of a liability in underdog spots because the pressure to perform at an elite level is reduced, allowing their natural shooting rhythm to emerge. Their pace-and-space offense creates more efficient looks when opponents aren't game-planning around stopping a heavy favorite, and their defensive switching becomes more effective against teams that may be over-confident. The psychological edge cannot be understated – this is a franchise accustomed to being the hunter rather than the hunted. When oddsmakers suggest they're slightly inferior, it often triggers their championship muscle memory. This trend carries the most weight in playoff-atmosphere regular season games against fellow contenders, where the small underdog role perfectly aligns with their proven postseason mentality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Golden State Warriors's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Golden State Warriors have a 16-11-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 59.3% ATS win rate over 27 games in this betting situation.
Is betting on the Golden State Warriors as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Warriors as small underdogs has been profitable with a 13.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Their 59.3% ATS win rate in this spot significantly exceeds the break-even threshold needed for profitability.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well above league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Warriors' 59.3% cover rate as small underdogs represents strong value for bettors over this 10-year period.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.