The data suggests caution when backing the Detroit Pistons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Detroit Pistons are just 30-56-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -33.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +33.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record30-56-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size86 games
ROI-33.4%
Units Won-28.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-4-00.0%-4.5%
20158-4-00.0%+27.3%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20174-4-00.0%-4.5%
20182-9-00.0%-65.3%
20190-8-00.0%-100.0%
20202-6-00.0%-52.3%
20214-4-00.0%-4.5%
20222-5-00.0%-45.5%
20232-7-00.0%-57.6%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Detroit Pistons' struggles as large favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational reality during their rebuilding years. When oddsmakers install Detroit as significant favorites, it typically occurs against equally struggling opponents or during brief hot streaks that inflate public confidence. The Pistons have operated as a development-focused franchise for much of this period, prioritizing young player minutes and long-term growth over maximizing individual game outcomes. Detroit's roster construction during these seasons often lacked the veteran leadership and clutch-time execution necessary to close out games against desperate underdogs. Young cores tend to play with inconsistent intensity, particularly when facing teams with nothing to lose. The psychological pressure of being expected to dominate creates tension that manifests in sloppy possessions and defensive lapses against motivated opponents fighting for respect. The franchise's coaching philosophy during rebuilding phases has emphasized player development over situational game management, leading to experimental lineups and extended minutes for prospects even in crucial moments. This approach naturally creates variance that savvy underdogs can exploit. Bettors should be most cautious backing Detroit as large favorites during early-season stretches when small sample sizes create inflated expectations, or when facing teams on extended road trips looking to salvage pride.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Pistons's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?

The Detroit Pistons have an ATS record of 30-56-0 (34.9% win rate) when favored by 7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This means they failed to cover the spread in 56 of their 86 games as large favorites.

Is betting on the Detroit Pistons as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?

No, betting on the Detroit Pistons as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -33.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents significant losses for bettors who consistently backed Detroit in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical league average of around 50% ATS for favorites. The Pistons' 34.9% cover rate as large favorites indicates they consistently struggled to meet elevated expectations during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.