The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Denver Nuggets are just 102-114-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.8%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record102-114-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size216 games
ROI-9.8%
Units Won-21.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-8-00.0%+10.5%
20159-11-00.0%-14.1%
20169-10-00.0%-9.6%
201710-13-00.0%-17.0%
20189-9-00.0%-4.5%
20194-11-00.0%-49.1%
20206-14-00.0%-42.7%
202114-9-00.0%+16.2%
202211-7-00.0%+16.7%
202311-9-00.0%+5.0%
20248-13-00.0%-27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from several interconnected factors that create a perfect storm for underperformance. Denver's high-altitude home advantage becomes a double-edged sword on the road, as players often experience fatigue and adjustment issues when traveling to sea level for extended periods against unfamiliar Eastern Conference teams. The team's methodical, half-court offensive system built around Nikola Jokic's playmaking requires precise timing and chemistry that can break down against defensive schemes they rarely face. Denver's coaching staff typically uses non-conference games as experimental periods, testing rotations and strategies since these matchups don't directly impact playoff seeding within the competitive Western Conference. This approach often leads to inconsistent effort levels and lineup combinations that don't maximize the team's strengths. The franchise's historical focus on building chemistry against division rivals means they're less prepared for the stylistic differences presented by Eastern Conference teams. Smart bettors should target Denver as an underdog in non-conference road games, particularly early in seasons when rotations remain unsettled. This trend carries the most weight during November and December when the team is still finding its rhythm and non-conference games feel less consequential to players and coaching staff.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?

The Denver Nuggets have a 102-114-0 ATS record when playing against non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.2% ATS win rate over 216 games.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as vs non-conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets against non-conference opponents has not been profitable. The team shows a negative -9.8% ROI with a 0.0% overall win rate in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the typical 50% ATS expectation, as the Nuggets cover the spread only 47.2% of the time against non-conference teams. The negative ROI indicates consistent underperformance relative to betting market expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.