The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as sunday games, the Denver Nuggets are just 203-219-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record203-219-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size422 games
ROI-8.2%
Units Won-34.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201420-14-00.0%+12.3%
201515-17-00.0%-10.5%
201621-21-00.0%-4.5%
201719-22-00.0%-11.5%
201816-16-00.0%-4.5%
201915-22-00.0%-22.6%
202013-26-00.0%-36.4%
202129-23-00.0%+6.5%
202218-12-00.0%+14.6%
202319-20-00.0%-7.0%
202418-26-00.0%-21.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' Sunday struggles reflect the unique challenges of playing on the NBA's traditional family day, where crowd energy typically runs lower and players often deal with disrupted routines. Denver's high-altitude home advantage becomes less pronounced on Sundays when visiting teams have had extra time to acclimate, while their methodical, half-court offensive system under Michael Malone tends to start slowly - a problem amplified by the typically sluggish pace of Sunday afternoon games. Denver's reliance on Nikola Jokic's playmaking creates particular issues on Sundays when the big man historically shows decreased assist numbers, likely due to teammates being less sharp mentally on what's often a recovery day from Saturday night games. The team's depth, while generally an asset, becomes a liability when role players like Christian Braun or Reggie Jackson struggle with consistency in the more relaxed Sunday atmosphere. The psychological factor can't be ignored - Denver has consistently been one of the league's better home teams, but Sunday games often lack the intense crowd support that elevates their Mile High advantage. Bettors should particularly avoid backing Denver on Sunday road games or when they're laying significant points, as their tendency to play down to competition is magnified on the league's most unpredictable day. This trend matters most when Denver faces Eastern Conference opponents on Sunday afternoons, where the combination of travel, time zones, and reduced intensity creates perfect storm conditions for underperformance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as sunday games?

The Denver Nuggets have a 203-219-0 ATS record in Sunday games from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.1% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as sunday games profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets in Sunday games has not been profitable, showing a -8.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against the spread on Sundays.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nuggets' 48.1% ATS win rate on Sundays is below the theoretical 50% break-even point for spread betting. Their -8.2% ROI suggests they consistently fail to cover spreads on Sundays more than the typical team variance would suggest.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.