The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Denver Nuggets are just 127-134-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.1%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record127-134-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size261 games
ROI-7.1%
Units Won-18.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201413-8-00.0%+18.2%
201510-13-00.0%-17.0%
201614-14-00.0%-4.5%
201710-16-00.0%-26.6%
20189-9-00.0%-4.5%
20199-17-00.0%-33.9%
202010-13-00.0%-17.0%
202114-12-00.0%+2.8%
202213-6-00.0%+30.6%
202313-11-00.0%+3.4%
202412-15-00.0%-15.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles with extended rest stem from their unique offensive rhythm and team chemistry dynamics. Denver's offense thrives on continuity and flow, particularly the intricate pick-and-roll timing between Nikola Jokic and his teammates. When the team sits idle for multiple days, this carefully calibrated system often starts sluggishly, leading to early deficits that handicap their spread coverage. Denver's roster construction also works against them in these spots. The team relies heavily on role players who need consistent minutes to maintain confidence and shooting touch. Extended breaks disrupt these complementary pieces more than star-driven teams, creating an imbalanced attack where Jokic shoulders excessive early burden while teammates find their groove. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. The Nuggets have historically been a workmanlike team that builds momentum through regular competition. Extended rest periods can breed complacency, particularly against opponents they're expected to handle easily, leading to flat performances that fail to cover inflated lines. Bettors should target Denver opponents or unders when the Nuggets return from three-plus days off, especially in early-season games when chemistry is still developing and during stretches following emotional wins where letdown potential peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Denver Nuggets have gone 127-134-0 against the spread when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.7% ATS win rate over 261 total games.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -7.1% ROI. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Denver in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nuggets' 48.7% ATS win rate with extended rest is slightly below the typical 50% baseline expected in sports betting. Their -7.1% ROI suggests they consistently fail to cover spreads in this situation more than average teams.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.