Denver Nuggets Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Nuggets' struggles as heavy favorites stem from their historically inconsistent defensive identity and tendency to play down to competition. Denver has traditionally been built around offensive firepower, particularly in the Nikola Jokic era, which creates a natural letdown effect when facing weaker opponents. Teams often elevate their effort against perceived superior opponents, while the Nuggets have shown a pattern of coasting when the spread suggests an easy victory. Denver's altitude advantage at home typically gets baked into larger spreads, but visiting teams often arrive more motivated for marquee matchups at Ball Arena. The franchise's culture has also shifted dramatically over the sample period, from rebuilding years to championship contenders, yet the fundamental issue remains: they've rarely been the type of dominant defensive team that consistently blows out inferior competition. The psychological aspect cannot be ignored either. When Vegas sets Denver as massive favorites, it usually reflects public perception rather than true dominance, creating inflated lines that savvy opponents can exploit through increased intensity and game-planning focus. This trend carries the most weight during regular season games against sub-.500 teams, particularly in January and February when motivation naturally wanes before the playoff push intensifies.