Denver Nuggets Home Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Denver Nuggets hold a record of 58-38-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +15.3% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $15 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 9-8-0 | 0.0% | +1.1% |
| 2016 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2017 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2018 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 7-2-0 | 0.0% | +48.5% |
| 2021 | 7-1-0 | 0.0% | +67.0% |
| 2022 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2023 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2024 | 5-5-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Nuggets' success as home underdogs stems from their unique combination of altitude advantage and roster construction that thrives when expectations are lowered. Playing at 5,280 feet above sea level in Denver creates a natural equalizer against superior opponents, as visiting teams often struggle with conditioning and shooting touch adjustments. This physical edge becomes magnified when the Nuggets enter games as underdogs, typically facing elite competition that may underestimate the challenge of playing in the thin air. Denver's core identity revolves around unselfish basketball and exceptional passing, led by Nikola Jokic's playmaking ability. When facing stronger teams as home underdogs, the Nuggets can exploit opponents who might approach the game with less intensity or preparation. Their balanced offensive attack and strong home crowd support create an environment where they can hang with anyone, especially when the betting market suggests they shouldn't. The psychological element cannot be overlooked - this franchise has historically embraced the underdog mentality, playing with extra motivation when disrespected by oddsmakers. Bettors should target this spot when Denver faces teams on back-to-back games or when coming off emotional victories. This trend carries the most weight during playoff races and against teams with inflated records early in seasons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as home underdog?
The Denver Nuggets have a 58-38-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to a 60.4% ATS win rate over 96 total games.
Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as home underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Denver Nuggets as home underdogs has been profitable with a 15.3% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite covering the spread 60.4% of the time, this represents strong long-term value.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Nuggets' 60.4% ATS rate and 15.3% ROI as home underdogs represents exceptional value.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.