The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Denver Nuggets are just 90-138-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -24.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +24.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record90-138-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size228 games
ROI-24.6%
Units Won-56.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-10-00.0%0.0%
20154-7-00.0%-30.6%
201613-10-00.0%+7.9%
20177-14-00.0%-36.4%
20185-10-00.0%-36.4%
20198-17-00.0%-38.9%
20204-18-00.0%-65.3%
202115-17-00.0%-10.5%
20228-5-00.0%+17.5%
20236-11-00.0%-32.6%
20249-19-00.0%-38.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles as favorites stem from their historically inconsistent approach to closing out games against perceived inferior opponents. Denver has long operated as a team that plays to the level of their competition, particularly during their pre-championship years when they lacked the killer instinct required of elite teams. This tendency manifests most clearly when facing teams with nothing to lose, where the Nuggets often coast through early possessions and find themselves in unexpectedly tight contests. Denver's offensive system, while highly effective, relies heavily on Nikola Jokic's court vision and decision-making. When opponents pack the paint and force role players to beat them, the Nuggets sometimes struggle to maintain their typical offensive efficiency. Their defensive inconsistencies compound this issue, as they've historically allowed backdoor covers even in games they control. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Denver's altitude advantage works both ways - while visiting teams struggle physically, the Nuggets sometimes appear overly comfortable at home against weaker opponents, leading to lackadaisical starts that create betting value for underdogs. This trend matters most when Denver faces teams on lengthy road trips or those playing back-to-back games, where the perceived mismatch becomes even more pronounced in the betting market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as as favorite?

The Denver Nuggets have an ATS record of 90-138-0 when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 39.5% of games. This represents a significantly poor performance against the spread in their favored role.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets as favorites has not been profitable, with a -24.6% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This negative return indicates substantial losses for bettors who consistently backed Denver when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical league average, as favorites generally cover the spread around 48-50% of the time. The Nuggets' 39.5% cover rate as favorites represents a significant underperformance compared to standard expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.