The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Denver Nuggets are just 90-136-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -24.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +24.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record90-136-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size226 games
ROI-24.0%
Units Won-54.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-8-00.0%+10.5%
20154-7-00.0%-30.6%
201613-10-00.0%+7.9%
20177-14-00.0%-36.4%
20185-10-00.0%-36.4%
20198-17-00.0%-38.9%
20204-18-00.0%-65.3%
202115-17-00.0%-10.5%
20228-5-00.0%+17.5%
20236-11-00.0%-32.6%
20249-19-00.0%-38.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks stem from their historically patient organizational culture and deliberate playing style. Unlike teams that make dramatic adjustments or lineup changes after poor stretches, Denver tends to stick with their core philosophy, trusting their established systems to eventually click. This approach often means they continue playing the same methodical pace and relying on half-court execution even when momentum has clearly shifted against them. Denver's reliance on Nikola Jokic as their primary offensive catalyst becomes particularly problematic in these scenarios. When the team enters a funk, opposing defenses can focus their entire game plan around limiting Jokic's impact, knowing that role players who've gone cold during the losing streak are unlikely to step up immediately. The Nuggets' supporting cast has historically been inconsistent in high-pressure bounce-back spots, leading to underwhelming performances against inferior opponents who are motivated to upset a favored team in crisis. The key betting insight here is to target Denver as road favorites specifically after three-game skids, as the hostile environment amplifies their tendency to play tight and overthink possessions. This trend carries the most weight when Denver is favored by 4-7 points against teams with strong home records.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Denver Nuggets have an ATS record of 90-136-0 (39.8%) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents poor performance against the spread in these situations over 226 total games.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is not profitable. The strategy shows a -24.0% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately $24 for every $100 wagered over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% break-even rate for ATS betting. The 39.8% ATS rate indicates the Nuggets consistently fail to cover spreads when favored following extended losing streaks, making this a fade-worthy trend.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.