The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Denver Nuggets are just 22-30-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -19.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +19.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record22-30-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size52 games
ROI-19.2%
Units Won-10.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-2-00.0%-4.5%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20161-2-00.0%-36.4%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20193-5-00.0%-28.4%
20204-2-00.0%+27.3%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20233-5-00.0%-28.4%
20244-5-00.0%-15.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from their historically methodical, altitude-dependent style that doesn't translate well to hostile environments when confidence is already shaken. Denver's core identity revolves around Nikola Jokic's cerebral pace and the team's comfort with their home court advantage at altitude, which opposing teams can't replicate. When they hit the road after a deflating loss, this deliberate approach often gets disrupted by faster-paced, more athletic opponents who exploit Denver's tendency to start games tentatively. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. Denver has cultivated a culture of resilience, but that same measured approach can manifest as sluggish starts on the road when they're expected to bounce back immediately. Road favorites face inherent pressure to validate the betting line, and the Nuggets' style doesn't lend itself to quick emotional responses or dominant early statements that typically separate good road favorites from poor ones. Smart bettors should target Denver's opponents in these spots, particularly when facing teams with strong home court energy or up-tempo offenses that can dictate pace early. This trend carries the most weight when Denver is laying significant points on the road after losses to quality opponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Denver Nuggets have a 22-30-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.3% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets as away favorites after a loss has not been profitable. This trend shows a -19.2% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost nearly 20% of their investment over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% ATS baseline, with the Nuggets covering just 42.3% of the time in this situation. The -19.2% ROI indicates this has been a consistently unprofitable betting scenario compared to league norms.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.