The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Denver Nuggets are just 94-102-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record94-102-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size196 games
ROI-8.4%
Units Won-16.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-8-00.0%+10.5%
20153-10-00.0%-55.9%
201613-7-00.0%+24.1%
201712-9-00.0%+9.1%
20188-9-00.0%-10.2%
20196-12-00.0%-36.4%
20202-10-00.0%-68.2%
202114-13-00.0%-1.0%
202210-5-00.0%+27.3%
20238-8-00.0%-4.5%
20247-11-00.0%-25.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles after victories stem from a combination of psychological complacency and their roster construction around Nikola Jokic's unique skill set. Denver has historically been a team that plays to the level of their competition, often lacking the killer instinct to maintain intensity following successful performances. This tendency becomes particularly pronounced when they face perceived inferior opponents after quality wins, leading to flat starts and lackadaisical defensive efforts. Jokic's cerebral playing style, while brilliant, can contribute to this pattern. The Serbian center's methodical approach sometimes translates to the entire team operating at a more relaxed pace when they believe they've already proven their superiority. Additionally, Denver's depth issues over the years have meant that role players who stepped up in big wins often regress to their mean in subsequent games, creating inconsistent supporting performances around their superstar. The coaching staff's tendency to experiment with rotations after wins has also disrupted the team's rhythm, particularly during Michael Malone's tenure. Players who earned minutes in victories sometimes struggle to replicate that production when given expanded roles. This trend carries the most weight when Denver faces teams with losing records immediately following statement wins against playoff contenders, especially in home games where complacency can set in early.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as after a win?

The Denver Nuggets have a 94-102-0 ATS record after a win from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 94 games while failing to cover in 102 games. This represents a 48.0% ATS win rate over 196 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets after a win has not been profitable, showing a -8.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates bettors would have lost money consistently backing Denver in this spot.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nuggets' 48.0% ATS rate after wins is slightly below the typical 50% baseline expected in spread betting. Their -8.4% ROI suggests they've been overvalued by oddsmakers in these situations, making them a fade candidate rather than a betting target.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.