The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a loss, the Denver Nuggets are just 104-113-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record104-113-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size217 games
ROI-8.5%
Units Won-18.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-5-00.0%+17.5%
201512-7-00.0%+20.6%
20168-14-00.0%-30.6%
20177-13-00.0%-33.2%
20188-7-00.0%+1.8%
20199-10-00.0%-9.6%
202011-15-00.0%-19.2%
202113-9-00.0%+12.8%
20228-7-00.0%+1.8%
202310-11-00.0%-9.1%
202410-15-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles after losses stem from their offensive-minded identity creating defensive vulnerability during emotional swings. Denver has built their system around high-altitude pace and Nikola Jokic's playmaking brilliance, but this approach requires consistent rhythm and confidence. When that rhythm breaks following a defeat, the team often doubles down on offensive aggression rather than tightening defensively, leading to shootouts that rarely favor the road team or underdog. Denver's core players, particularly during their competitive years, have shown a tendency toward frustration when their free-flowing style gets disrupted. The team's reliance on three-point shooting and transition offense means they're susceptible to cold stretches that compound after disappointing losses. Their home-court advantage at altitude also creates a psychological dependency - when forced to bounce back on the road or against quality opponents, they've historically pressed rather than executed patiently. The coaching staff's offensive philosophy, while successful long-term, hasn't always emphasized the defensive adjustments needed for immediate bounce-back performances. This creates exploitable spots for sharp bettors when Denver faces motivated opponents or playoff-caliber teams. This trend matters most when the Nuggets are coming off road losses or defeats to inferior opponents, particularly in nationally televised games where pride becomes a factor.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as after a loss?

The Denver Nuggets have a 104-113-0 ATS record after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.9% ATS win rate over 217 games.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets after a loss is not profitable. The team has generated a -8.5% ROI with a 47.9% ATS win rate, resulting in consistent losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the typical 50% league average for ATS betting. The Nuggets' 47.9% ATS rate after losses indicates they consistently fail to cover spreads in bounce-back situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.