The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after 2+ consecutive losses, the Denver Nuggets are just 203-218-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.0%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record203-218-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size421 games
ROI-8.0%
Units Won-33.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201420-13-00.0%+15.7%
201515-17-00.0%-10.5%
201621-21-00.0%-4.5%
201719-22-00.0%-11.5%
201816-16-00.0%-4.5%
201915-22-00.0%-22.6%
202013-26-00.0%-36.4%
202129-23-00.0%+6.5%
202218-12-00.0%+14.6%
202319-20-00.0%-7.0%
202418-26-00.0%-21.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles after consecutive losses stem from their heavy reliance on Nikola Jokić's emotional leadership and the team's historically inconsistent defensive identity. When Denver falls into losing streaks, the pressure intensifies on Jokić to carry an even heavier offensive load, which paradoxically can disrupt the ball movement and pace that makes their offense most effective. The team's supporting cast, particularly in years without a consistent second star, tends to defer too heavily to Jokić during adversity rather than maintaining their aggressive offensive approach. Denver's defensive inconsistencies become magnified after losses, as the team often tries to overcompensate by switching schemes or rotations mid-game. This reactive approach has historically led to communication breakdowns and easy scoring opportunities for opponents who exploit the Nuggets' adjustment period. The franchise's altitude advantage at home becomes less pronounced when the team lacks confidence, as visiting teams gain momentum from Denver's visible frustration. Bettors should target Denver as road underdogs after consecutive losses, particularly against teams with strong perimeter shooting that can exploit their defensive uncertainty. This trend carries the most weight during the middle portion of the season when playoff positioning anxiety peaks but teams haven't yet found their identity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as after 2+ consecutive losses?

The Denver Nuggets have an ATS record of 203-218-0 when playing after 2+ consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.2% ATS win rate over 421 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as after 2+ consecutive losses profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets after 2+ consecutive losses is not profitable. The strategy shows a negative -8.0% ROI with a 48.2% ATS win rate, meaning bettors would lose money over time.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point for ATS betting. The 48.2% win rate and -8.0% ROI indicates the Nuggets have struggled to cover spreads when bouncing back from losing streaks compared to typical market expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.