Dallas Mavericks vs Division Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Dallas Mavericks are just 33-34-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2018 | 8-1-0 | 0.0% | +69.7% |
| 2019 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2020 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2021 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2023 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2024 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Mavericks' middling performance against division rivals stems from the unique familiarity and intensity that defines Southwest Division matchups. Dallas faces teams like San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans, and Memphis multiple times per season, creating a chess match dynamic where strategic adjustments compound with each meeting. The Spurs' historically disciplined approach often neutralizes Dallas's offensive flow, while Houston's pace-and-space philosophy creates volatile scoring environments that can swing either direction against the spread. Dallas's roster construction under different coaching regimes has struggled with the physicality and defensive schemes that division opponents deploy specifically for these matchups. Teams like Memphis and New Orleans have consistently exploited the Mavericks' perimeter defense weaknesses, particularly during transition opportunities that arise from Dallas's sometimes careless offensive possessions. The psychological weight of division games also affects role players differently than stars, creating inconsistent effort levels that impact margin outcomes. The volatility in their divisional record suggests these games often come down to execution in crucial moments rather than talent disparities. Bettors should focus on Dallas's recent injury reports and travel schedules, as division games typically feature less rest between contests. This trend carries the most weight during the season's final month when playoff positioning intensifies every possession.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as vs division opponent?
The Dallas Mavericks have a 33-34-0 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a 49.3% ATS win rate over 67 games.
Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as vs division opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Dallas Mavericks against division opponents has not been profitable, showing a -6.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Dallas in divisional matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Mavericks' 49.3% ATS win rate against division opponents is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point. While close to league average performance, the negative ROI suggests they've consistently failed to cover spreads in these games.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.