The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as two days rest, the Dallas Mavericks are just 18-26-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -21.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +21.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record18-26-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size44 games
ROI-21.9%
Units Won-9.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-6-00.0%-72.7%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20161-1-00.0%-4.5%
20173-3-00.0%-4.5%
20182-2-00.0%-4.5%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20203-1-00.0%+43.2%
20211-4-00.0%-61.8%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20232-2-00.0%-4.5%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' struggles with two days of rest likely stem from their reliance on rhythm-based offensive systems and star player dependencies. Dallas has historically built their identity around high-tempo, ball-movement offenses that require consistent timing and flow. Extended rest periods can disrupt this synchronization, particularly for a team that has often relied heavily on individual brilliance from players like Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Dončić to create offensive opportunities when structured sets break down. Dallas coaching staffs have traditionally favored maintaining game rhythm over extended preparation time. The franchise's offensive philosophy emphasizes reading defenses in real-time and making split-second decisions, skills that can become rusty during longer layoffs. Additionally, the Mavericks have frequently struggled with defensive consistency throughout different eras, and extra rest hasn't historically translated into better defensive preparation or execution. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Dallas teams have shown tendencies to come out flat after extended rest, possibly due to overconfidence or simply losing their competitive edge. This pattern suggests the team performs better when maintaining regular game flow rather than having time to overthink matchups. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Dallas as favorites coming off two days rest, especially in road situations where the rhythm disruption combines with hostile environments.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as two days rest?

The Dallas Mavericks have an 18-26-0 ATS record when playing with two days rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 40.9% ATS win rate over 44 games.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as two days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Mavericks with two days rest has not been profitable. The team has produced a -21.9% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as teams typically perform around 50% ATS. The Mavericks' 40.9% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they consistently underperform expectations when well-rested.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.