The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as one day rest, the Dallas Mavericks are just 20-26-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -17.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +17.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record20-26-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size46 games
ROI-17.0%
Units Won-7.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-1-00.0%+52.7%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20162-1-00.0%+27.3%
20172-5-00.0%-45.5%
20181-6-00.0%-72.7%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20204-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20221-3-00.0%-52.3%
20230-3-00.0%-100.0%
20244-2-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' struggles on one day's rest stem from their historically heavy reliance on aging superstars and a rotation that lacks the depth necessary for quick recovery. During the Dirk Nowitzki era, Dallas often managed minutes carefully around their franchise player, but compressed schedules exposed their thin bench and forced key players into extended minutes they couldn't sustain effectively. The team's offensive system, traditionally built around methodical half-court sets and precise execution, tends to suffer when players are physically compromised and mentally fatigued. Dallas has consistently been a team that benefits from preparation time, with coaching staffs under Rick Carlisle and Jason Kidd emphasizing detailed game planning and adjustments. When that preparation window shrinks to just one day, their complex offensive schemes often appear disjointed, and their defensive rotations lack the crispness that makes them competitive against quality opponents. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either - this franchise has developed a pattern of inconsistent effort in spots where they feel they should cruise, leading to poor body language and execution in winnable games. Bettors should be most cautious backing Dallas on one day's rest when they're facing teams with superior depth, particularly in playoff race scenarios where motivation levels become crucial differentiators.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as one day rest?

The Dallas Mavericks have a 20-26-0 ATS record when playing on one day of rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.5% ATS win rate over 46 games.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as one day rest profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Mavericks on one day of rest has not been profitable, showing a -17.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents consistent losses for bettors backing Dallas in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Mavericks' 43.5% ATS win rate on one day of rest is below the typical 50% league average expectation. Their -17.0% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than break-even betting scenarios.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.