The public often underestimates the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Dallas Mavericks hold a record of 65-37-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +21.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $22 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record65-37-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size102 games
ROI+21.7%
Units Won+22.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-5-00.0%-4.5%
20153-1-00.0%+43.2%
20166-4-00.0%+14.6%
20175-4-00.0%+6.1%
20187-4-00.0%+21.5%
20194-2-00.0%+27.3%
202012-1-00.0%+76.2%
20214-4-00.0%-4.5%
20229-3-00.0%+43.2%
20237-4-00.0%+21.5%
20243-5-00.0%-28.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their unique organizational culture that thrives when expectations are lowered. Dallas has consistently built teams around dynamic offensive players like Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Dončić who elevate their games when facing disrespect from oddsmakers. The franchise's European influence has cultivated a mentality that embraces the underdog role, treating each home game as an opportunity to prove doubters wrong. Mark Cuban's ownership has fostered an environment where the team feeds off crowd energy and perceived slights. When Dallas enters American Airlines Center as an underdog, they typically face higher-caliber opponents, which paradoxically brings out their best effort. The team's offensive system, built around creating mismatches and exploiting pace, becomes more effective when opponents potentially overlook them or play with less intensity expecting an easier victory. The recent decline in this trend coincides with higher expectations surrounding Luka's prime years, suggesting the psychological edge diminishes as the team gains more respect league-wide. Bettors should target this spot specifically when Dallas faces elite Western Conference opponents at home during the regular season, as these scenarios most closely replicate the historical conditions that created this profitable pattern.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as home underdog?

The Dallas Mavericks have a 65-37-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to a 63.7% ATS win rate over 102 games.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Dallas Mavericks as home underdogs has been highly profitable with a 21.7% ROI. Despite a 0% straight-up win rate, their strong ATS performance makes them a valuable betting opportunity.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Mavericks' 63.7% ATS rate as home underdogs represents exceptional value for bettors.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.