The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Dallas Mavericks are just 105-114-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record105-114-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size219 games
ROI-8.5%
Units Won-18.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20149-12-00.0%-18.2%
20153-11-00.0%-59.1%
201617-11-00.0%+15.9%
201713-12-00.0%-0.7%
201810-11-00.0%-9.1%
20191-7-00.0%-76.1%
202012-7-00.0%+20.6%
20216-10-00.0%-28.4%
202212-10-00.0%+4.1%
202311-9-00.0%+5.0%
202411-14-00.0%-16.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' struggles after victories stem from a combination of psychological letdowns and their offensive-heavy identity. Dallas has historically relied on high-powered scoring attacks led by franchise cornerstones like Dirk Nowitzki and now Luka Dončić, creating a team culture that can become complacent when shots aren't falling at their usual elite level. After big wins, particularly against quality opponents, this Mavericks core tends to approach the next game with less defensive intensity, assuming their offensive firepower will carry them through. The franchise's European influence, particularly through Dončić's leadership style, brings a different pace and rhythm that can be inconsistent game-to-game. Unlike teams built on defensive identity that maintain consistent effort levels, Dallas's success fluctuates more dramatically with shooting variance and energy levels. Their recent form reflects this volatility perfectly. Smart bettors should target Dallas as road underdogs in their next game after impressive home victories, especially when facing defensively sound opponents. The combination of travel, potential overconfidence, and facing teams that can limit their transition offense creates optimal fade spots. This trend matters most when Dallas wins convincingly against playoff-caliber teams, particularly at home, then travels to face defensively disciplined opponents within 48 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as after a win?

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 105-114-0 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 47.9% ATS win rate over 219 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Mavericks after a win has not been profitable. The team has produced a negative -8.5% ROI over this 10-year period, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected 50% break-even rate for ATS betting. The Mavericks' 47.9% ATS win rate after wins suggests they may be overvalued by oddsmakers following victories.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.