The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Cavaliers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Cleveland Cavaliers are just 16-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record16-28-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size44 games
ROI-30.6%
Units Won-13.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20153-4-00.0%-18.2%
20163-2-00.0%+14.6%
20172-3-00.0%-23.6%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20190-3-00.0%-100.0%
20200-4-00.0%-100.0%
20210-2-00.0%-100.0%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20232-3-00.0%-23.6%
20242-1-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cavaliers' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a psychological pattern that has plagued Cleveland throughout different roster iterations. When this franchise suffers a defeat, the pressure to respond at home often creates overthinking and pressing rather than natural execution. Cleveland teams have historically carried the weight of expectations poorly, and this manifests most clearly when they're expected to bounce back as favorites on their home court. The Cavaliers' offensive rhythm becomes particularly disrupted in these scenarios. Their ball movement stagnates as players try to do too much individually to compensate for the previous loss, leading to contested shots and reduced efficiency. Defensively, Cleveland often overcompensates by gambling for steals or switching unnecessarily, creating easy scoring opportunities for opponents who enter with nothing to lose as road underdogs. Market perception also works against Cleveland in these spots. Oddsmakers and the public tend to overvalue the home court advantage and assume the Cavaliers will naturally elevate their play after a loss, creating inflated lines that provide value on the opposition. This trend carries the most weight when Cleveland faces teams with strong road records or when the Cavaliers are coming off emotional losses to division rivals.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cleveland Cavaliers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 16-28-0 against the spread as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 36.4% ATS win rate over 44 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Cleveland Cavaliers as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Cleveland Cavaliers as home favorites after a loss has been unprofitable with a -30.6% ROI. This poor performance indicates significant value fade in this specific betting situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Cavaliers' 36.4% ATS win rate in this situation is well below the typical 50% expectation for ATS performance. Their consistent struggles as home favorites following losses make this one of their worst betting trends.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.