The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Cavaliers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Cleveland Cavaliers are just 41-58-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -20.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +20.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record41-58-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size99 games
ROI-20.9%
Units Won-20.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-7-00.0%-30.6%
20154-5-00.0%-15.2%
20168-3-00.0%+38.8%
20174-5-00.0%-15.2%
20182-6-00.0%-52.3%
20191-8-00.0%-78.8%
20204-6-00.0%-23.6%
20211-3-00.0%-52.3%
20224-5-00.0%-15.2%
20235-7-00.0%-20.4%
20244-3-00.0%+9.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cavaliers' struggles as home favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and their actual competitive ceiling. Cleveland has historically been a franchise caught between rebuilding phases and playoff pushes, creating inflated lines when they're favored at home. The betting public tends to overvalue home court advantage for teams like the Cavaliers, who lack the elite talent necessary to consistently cover spreads against motivated underdogs. Cleveland's roster construction has often featured complementary players without a true superstar anchor, making them vulnerable to letdown performances when expected to dominate lesser opponents. Their home court at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse doesn't provide the intimidating atmosphere of elite venues, and opposing teams often view games in Cleveland as winnable opportunities rather than daunting road challenges. The psychological burden of being favored appears to weigh heavily on Cavaliers players, who perform better in underdog roles where expectations are managed. Their coaching staff has also shown inconsistent game management in situations where they're expected to control games from start to finish. Bettors should target fading Cleveland as home favorites specifically when they're laying more than 4.5 points against teams with winning records, as these scenarios historically produce the worst coverage rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cleveland Cavaliers's ATS record as home favorite?

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 41-58-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 41.4% of games. This represents 99 total games where they were favored at home.

Is betting on the Cleveland Cavaliers as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Cleveland Cavaliers as home favorites has not been profitable, showing a -20.9% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This means bettors would have lost approximately 21 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the typical league average for home favorites, which generally cover around 48-52% of the time. The Cavaliers' 41.4% cover rate and negative ROI indicate they have consistently underperformed expectations when favored at home.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.