Chicago Bulls Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Bulls in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Chicago Bulls are just 16-21-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -17.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +17.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2017 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2018 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2020 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2022 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Bulls' struggles as small favorites stem from their inconsistent identity and tendency to play down to competition. Chicago has historically been a team caught between rebuilding and competing, creating a psychological dynamic where they often lack the killer instinct needed to put away supposedly inferior opponents. When oddsmakers set them as slight favorites, it typically reflects matchups where the Bulls should win based on talent alone, but their execution frequently falls short. This franchise has dealt with roster turnover and coaching changes that have prevented the development of a consistent winning culture. Small favorite situations often arise in games where Chicago faces teams with less talent but more cohesion or desperation. The Bulls' young core has shown a pattern of inconsistent effort levels, particularly in games they're expected to win, leading to flat performances against motivated underdogs. The recent decline suggests this trend is worsening as the current roster construction remains flawed. Chicago's inability to close games effectively becomes magnified when they're laying points, as opponents stay competitive longer than the spread suggests they should. This trend matters most when the Bulls face sub-.500 teams at home, where expectations are highest and their historical tendency to disappoint becomes most pronounced.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chicago Bulls's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?
The Chicago Bulls have a 16-21-0 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.2% ATS win rate over 37 games.
Is betting on the Chicago Bulls as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?
No, betting on the Chicago Bulls as small favorites (-1 to -3) is not profitable, showing a -17.4% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing Chicago in these situations over the 10-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the expected 50% ATS win rate for any team. The Bulls' 43.2% success rate as small favorites indicates they consistently underperform expectations in close games where they're slightly favored.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.