The data suggests caution when backing the Charlotte Hornets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7), the Charlotte Hornets are just 26-37-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -21.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +21.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record26-37-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size63 games
ROI-21.2%
Units Won-13.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-4-00.0%-18.2%
20154-3-00.0%+9.1%
20161-7-00.0%-76.1%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20183-3-00.0%-4.5%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20201-4-00.0%-61.8%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20221-3-00.0%-52.3%
20233-2-00.0%+14.6%
20245-4-00.0%+6.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Hornets' struggles as medium favorites stem from their organizational identity crisis and roster construction flaws that have persisted across multiple coaching regimes. Charlotte consistently builds teams around explosive offensive talent without the defensive foundation or veteran leadership necessary to close out games they're expected to win. This creates a dangerous dynamic where they can blow out inferior opponents or sleepwalk through contests against teams they should handle comfortably. The franchise's perpetual youth movement compounds this issue. Young, talented players like LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges can deliver highlight-reel performances that justify the betting line, but they lack the game management skills to navigate the subtle pressures of being favored. Charlotte's offense tends to become iso-heavy and stagnant when opponents make defensive adjustments, leading to those frustrating losses where they score enough to win but can't execute in crucial moments. The psychological burden of expectations weighs heavily on a franchise starved for playoff success. When oddsmakers install them as medium favorites, it signals belief in their talent level, but the Hornets often respond with unfocused, entitled performances against supposedly inferior competition. This trend matters most during home games against sub-.500 teams, where the combination of fan expectations and perceived easy matchups creates the perfect storm for disappointing performances.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Charlotte Hornets's ATS record as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7)?

The Charlotte Hornets have a 26-37-0 ATS record as medium favorites (-3.5 to -7 point spreads) from 2014-2024. This represents a 41.3% cover rate across 63 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Charlotte Hornets as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7) profitable?

No, betting on the Charlotte Hornets as medium favorites has not been profitable, showing a -21.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Charlotte in this spot.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Hornets' 41.3% ATS cover rate as medium favorites is well below the expected 50% league average. Their -21.2% ROI significantly underperforms typical medium favorite betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.