The data suggests caution when backing the Boston Celtics in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Boston Celtics are just 12-20-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -28.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +28.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-20-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size32 games
ROI-28.4%
Units Won-9.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20213-1-00.0%+43.2%
20222-1-00.0%+27.3%
20230-3-00.0%-100.0%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Celtics' poor home performance against division rivals stems from a combination of familiarity breeding contempt and elevated opponent motivation. Atlantic Division teams like the Nets, Knicks, 76ers, and Raptors know Boston's system intimately through frequent matchups, allowing them to exploit weaknesses that other teams might miss. These rivals also circle Celtics home games as statement opportunities, bringing their best effort to TD Garden where they can make headlines in a major market. Boston's historically strong home court advantage actually works against them in these spots. The team may suffer from overconfidence facing familiar foes, while opponents benefit from extra preparation time and heightened focus. The Celtics' tendency to play to their competition level becomes problematic when facing motivated divisional opponents who understand their tendencies. The psychological pressure of defending home court against rivals creates tighter games than the spread typically accounts for. Division rivals know how to disrupt Boston's rhythm and force them into uncomfortable situations, particularly in the fourth quarter where familiarity with personnel becomes crucial. This trend matters most early in the season when teams are still establishing identity and during the final month when division standings carry playoff implications.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Celtics's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Boston Celtics have a 12-20-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 37.5% ATS win rate over 32 games.

Is betting on the Boston Celtics as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Boston Celtics at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -28.4% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Celtics in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% ATS baseline, with the Celtics covering just 37.5% of the time. The -28.4% ROI indicates substantial underperformance compared to typical betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.