The data suggests caution when backing the Boston Celtics in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home - second of back-to-back, the Boston Celtics are just 12-17-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -21.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +21.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-17-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size29 games
ROI-21.0%
Units Won-6.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-3-00.0%-23.6%
20223-3-00.0%-4.5%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Celtics' struggles as home favorites on the second night of back-to-backs stem from a combination of physical fatigue and psychological complacency. Boston's historically deep rotations under Brad Stevens and Joe Mazzulla often mask regular season fatigue, but the compressed recovery time between games exposes their reliance on veteran leadership and precision execution. When legs are heavy, the Celtics' three-point shooting—their primary offensive weapon—becomes inconsistent, while their switching defense loses the quick rotations that make it effective. The psychological element is equally damaging. Playing at TD Garden with favorable betting lines creates a false sense of security after already expending emotional energy the previous night. This is particularly problematic for a team that has cultivated a championship mentality, as they can subconsciously coast against perceived inferior opponents when not at full strength. The franchise's emphasis on load management in recent years has actually worked against them in these spots, as role players who might typically step up are often the ones being rested, leaving a shortened rotation to handle back-to-back duties. This trend carries the most weight when Boston faces teams with nothing to lose—lottery-bound squads or desperate playoff contenders who view catching the Celtics tired as their best opportunity for an upset.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Celtics's ATS record as home - second of back-to-back?

The Boston Celtics have a 12-17-0 ATS record when playing at home on the second night of back-to-back games from 2014-2024. This represents a 41.4% ATS win rate over 29 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Boston Celtics as home - second of back-to-back profitable?

No, betting on the Boston Celtics as home favorites on back-to-back nights has not been profitable. With a -21.0% ROI and 0.0% straight-up win rate, this situation has resulted in consistent losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average, as most teams struggle in back-to-back situations but rarely perform this poorly. The Celtics' 41.4% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they consistently fail to cover spreads in this challenging scheduling spot.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.