The data suggests caution when backing the Boston Celtics in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as second game of back-to-back, the Boston Celtics are just 27-36-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -18.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +18.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record27-36-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size63 games
ROI-18.2%
Units Won-11.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20150-4-00.0%-100.0%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20184-5-00.0%-15.2%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20204-5-00.0%-15.2%
20215-2-00.0%+36.4%
20225-4-00.0%+6.1%
20230-6-00.0%-100.0%
20243-2-00.0%+14.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Celtics' struggles on the second night of back-to-backs stem from their historically intense defensive identity and reliance on veteran leadership. Boston's defensive schemes require significant energy expenditure, with players constantly switching, helping, and communicating across 48 minutes. When facing consecutive games, this defensive intensity becomes unsustainable, leading to breakdowns that opposing offenses exploit. The franchise's tendency to rely heavily on star players compounds this issue. Whether it was the Big Three era or more recent iterations, Boston has often asked key contributors to play heavy minutes, leaving little depth to absorb the workload on tired legs. This creates a cascading effect where fatigued stars perform below expectations while role players struggle to fill expanded responsibilities. Boston's coaching philosophy has traditionally emphasized preparation and execution over raw athleticism. While this approach serves them well with rest, it becomes a liability when players lack the physical sharpness to execute complex schemes. The mental fatigue that accompanies physical exhaustion particularly hurts a team that prides itself on basketball IQ. Bettors should target Boston's back-to-back spots when they're facing well-rested teams with strong offensive systems, as the Celtics' defensive vulnerabilities become most pronounced against organized attacks that can exploit their diminished energy levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Celtics's ATS record as second game of back-to-back?

The Boston Celtics have a 27-36-0 ATS record in the second game of back-to-backs from 2014-2024. This represents a 42.9% cover rate over 63 games.

Is betting on the Boston Celtics as second game of back-to-back profitable?

No, betting on the Celtics in the second game of back-to-backs is not profitable. The strategy shows a -18.2% ROI with a 0% win rate over the 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% league average for ATS betting. The Celtics' 42.9% cover rate in this situation represents poor value for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.