The data suggests caution when backing the Boston Celtics in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Boston Celtics are just 102-119-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record102-119-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size221 games
ROI-11.9%
Units Won-26.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-14-00.0%-66.3%
201512-8-00.0%+14.6%
201612-9-00.0%+9.1%
20178-7-00.0%+1.8%
20189-13-00.0%-21.9%
201918-7-00.0%+37.5%
202010-14-00.0%-20.4%
202110-12-00.0%-13.2%
20225-13-00.0%-47.0%
20238-12-00.0%-23.6%
20247-10-00.0%-21.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Celtics' poor performance against the spread following victories stems from a combination of psychological letdowns and market overreactions that have plagued the franchise across different eras. Boston's championship pedigree and high expectations create inflated public perception after wins, leading oddsmakers to set lines that don't account for the team's tendency to play down to competition following success. This pattern reflects a deeper organizational culture where players can become complacent against perceived weaker opponents after proving their superiority in previous games. The franchise's reliance on veteran leadership and systematic basketball often works against them in these spots. When the Celtics execute their game plan effectively for a win, they sometimes approach the next contest with less urgency, particularly against teams they view as inferior. Their deliberate pace and emphasis on half-court execution can look sluggish when effort levels dip even slightly, creating situations where they win games but fail to cover spreads that assume peak performance. Smart bettors should target Boston's opponents in bounce-back spots, especially when the Celtics are favored after impressive victories against quality competition. This trend matters most when Boston faces division rivals or teams with revenge narratives following statement wins.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Celtics's ATS record as after a win?

The Boston Celtics have gone 102-119-0 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This gives them a 46.2% ATS win rate in this situation across 221 games.

Is betting on the Boston Celtics as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Boston Celtics after a win has not been profitable. The strategy shows a negative -11.9% ROI over the 10-year period from 2014-2024.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Celtics' 46.2% ATS win rate after wins is below the typical 50% break-even point for ATS betting. This underperformance suggests the betting market may overvalue the Celtics following victories.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.