Atlanta Hawks Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Hawks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Atlanta Hawks are just 27-33-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2016 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2017 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2019 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2020 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2023 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2024 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Hawks' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the mental fortitude to bounce back from adversity. Atlanta's organizational identity has been built around young, developing talent rather than veteran leadership, creating a team that often compounds mistakes rather than learning from them. When facing the pressure of being favored at home after a disappointing performance, the Hawks tend to press rather than execute, leading to rushed possessions and defensive breakdowns. The psychological weight of expectations particularly burdens Atlanta's core players, who have shown throughout their careers an inability to handle the dual pressure of being expected to win while simultaneously needing to prove their resilience. This manifests in poor shot selection early in games and a tendency to abandon their offensive system when trailing, creating the exact opposite response that successful teams display in similar situations. The recent improved form suggests this pattern may be evolving with roster changes, but the underlying organizational DNA remains intact. Bettors should be particularly wary of backing Atlanta in this spot when they're facing teams with strong road records or veteran leadership, as these opponents are most likely to exploit the Hawks' psychological vulnerabilities. This trend matters most when Atlanta is favored by less than five points, where the margin for error is smallest and mental mistakes become magnified.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Hawks's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Atlanta Hawks have gone 27-33-0 against the spread as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 45% ATS win rate over 60 total games in this situation.
Is betting on the Atlanta Hawks as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Atlanta Hawks as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable. The strategy shows a -14.1% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently over this 10-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is below the typical league average for home favorites, which generally covers the spread around 48-52% of the time. The Hawks' 45% ATS rate in this spot indicates they struggle to bounce back at home after losses.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.