The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Washington Nationals are just 220-233-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record220-233-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size454 games
ROI-7.3%
Units Won-33.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201422-19-00.0%+2.4%
201521-20-00.0%-2.2%
201615-24-00.0%-26.6%
201715-20-00.0%-18.2%
201815-20-00.0%-18.2%
201926-23-00.0%+1.3%
202027-24-10.0%+1.1%
202119-23-00.0%-13.6%
202220-18-00.0%+0.5%
202313-17-00.0%-17.3%
202427-25-00.0%-0.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' underwhelming home performance against the spread stems from several interconnected factors that have plagued the franchise throughout their Washington tenure. Nationals Park, while modern and well-appointed, lacks the intimidating atmosphere of baseball's more storied venues, failing to provide the psychological edge that translates into consistent outperformance of expectations. The team's inconsistent offensive approach at home has been particularly damaging, as they've struggled to capitalize on familiar surroundings that should theoretically favor their hitters' timing and comfort levels. Washington's pitching staff has historically underperformed relative to expectations when playing in front of home crowds, possibly due to pressure to justify inflated betting lines that often accompany home favorites. The organization's frequent roster turnover and managerial changes have prevented the development of a cohesive home-field identity, leaving players without the settled routines that typically benefit teams in familiar environments. The most actionable insight for bettors involves targeting Washington as road underdogs rather than backing them as home favorites, where public perception often inflates their lines beyond their actual capabilities. This trend matters most during divisional matchups and weekend series when casual betting action drives up home team prices, creating enhanced value on the opposition.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as home games?

The Washington Nationals have a 220-233-1 ATS record in home games from 2014-2024, covering the spread 48.6% of the time. This represents a below-average performance against the spread at home over the past 11 seasons.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as home games profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals in home games has not been profitable, with a -7.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates that $100 bets would have resulted in an average loss of $7.30 per wager.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nationals' 48.6% ATS win rate at home is below the typical 50% expectation and league average. Their -7.3% ROI significantly underperforms compared to profitable teams that maintain positive returns over similar periods.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.