The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Washington Nationals are just 94-384-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -62.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +62.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record94-384-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size478 games
ROI-62.5%
Units Won-298.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201415-38-00.0%-46.0%
20157-30-00.0%-63.9%
20167-32-00.0%-65.7%
20175-36-00.0%-76.7%
20188-39-00.0%-67.5%
20199-31-00.0%-57.0%
202012-41-00.0%-56.8%
20214-37-00.0%-81.4%
202211-34-00.0%-53.3%
20237-31-00.0%-64.8%
20249-35-00.0%-61.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles as favorites following losing streaks reveal a franchise caught between expectations and execution. When Washington enters a game favored after dropping three or more consecutive contests, they face the dual pressure of ending their skid while justifying the betting market's confidence. This psychological burden often proves too heavy for a team already dealing with the momentum shift and confidence issues that accompany extended losing periods. The franchise's organizational instability since their 2019 World Series championship has compounded these issues. Roster turnover, inconsistent pitching depth, and a tendency to rely heavily on veteran leadership that may not respond well to adversity all contribute to their inability to bounce back effectively in these spots. The Nationals often find themselves in these situations due to their middling talent level – good enough to be favored against weaker opponents, but lacking the depth and mental fortitude to consistently deliver when expectations are highest. Smart bettors should particularly target this trend when the Nationals are moderate favorites (-130 to -170) against divisional opponents, as familiarity breeds additional pressure and these games carry heightened importance for both clubhouse morale and organizational credibility.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Washington Nationals have a 94-384-0 ATS record as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 19.7% ATS win rate over 478 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak is not profitable. The strategy shows a -62.5% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate, indicating consistent losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically bounce back when favored after losing streaks. The Nationals' 0.0% win rate in this spot represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.