The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Washington Nationals are just 22-86-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -61.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +61.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record22-86-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size108 games
ROI-61.1%
Units Won-66.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-9-00.0%-52.3%
20152-7-00.0%-57.6%
20162-7-00.0%-57.6%
20171-13-00.0%-86.4%
20180-10-00.0%-100.0%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20204-8-00.0%-36.4%
20211-6-00.0%-72.7%
20221-10-00.0%-82.6%
20235-6-00.0%-13.2%
20241-7-00.0%-76.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a combination of organizational instability and psychological fragility that has plagued the franchise for much of the past decade. Washington has operated with a revolving door of managers and front office personnel, creating an environment where players lack consistent leadership during adversity. When the team suffers a loss and then faces the pressure of being favored on the road, this institutional weakness becomes magnified. The franchise's boom-or-bust mentality, evident in their 2019 World Series run followed by immediate decline, reflects a roster construction philosophy that prioritizes high-ceiling talent over steady, reliable performers. This approach creates teams that can dominate when everything clicks but crumble under the weight of expectations when momentum shifts. Road favorites must execute with precision and confidence, qualities that require strong clubhouse culture and veteran leadership – areas where Washington has consistently fallen short. The psychological burden of being expected to bounce back immediately after a loss, particularly in hostile environments, exposes the Nationals' mental fragility. Players press to justify the oddsmakers' confidence, leading to rushed at-bats and defensive miscues. This trend carries the most weight when Washington faces division rivals or teams with strong home-field advantages, where the pressure to perform as favorites becomes most acute.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Washington Nationals have a 22-86-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. This trend shows a -61.1% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately 61 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Nationals' 0.0% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.