The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Washington Nationals are just 200-231-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record200-231-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size432 games
ROI-11.4%
Units Won-49.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201427-28-00.0%-6.3%
201514-19-00.0%-19.0%
201614-20-00.0%-21.4%
20179-15-00.0%-28.4%
201821-20-00.0%-2.2%
201922-19-00.0%+2.4%
202027-29-10.0%-8.0%
20219-23-00.0%-46.3%
202221-18-00.0%+2.8%
202316-15-00.0%-1.5%
202420-25-00.0%-15.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles following victories stem from a combination of organizational inconsistency and psychological factors that have plagued the franchise during its rebuilding years. Washington has operated with a young, developing roster for much of this period, and inexperienced players often struggle with the mental aspect of maintaining momentum after positive results. The team's pitching staff, in particular, has lacked the depth to consistently deliver quality starts in back-to-back games, leading to frequent letdowns when expectations are elevated. The franchise's front office approach has also contributed to this pattern. Washington has frequently operated as sellers at trade deadlines, creating roster instability that makes it difficult for players to build chemistry and sustained confidence. When key veterans are moved mid-season, younger players lose leadership and struggle to handle the pressure of following up strong performances. The coaching staff's game management decisions have been inconsistent, particularly in bullpen usage after wins when managers might be more inclined to rest key relievers. This creates situations where inferior arms are exposed in crucial moments. This trend carries the most significance when Washington faces divisional opponents or quality teams where the market expects them to build on previous success.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as after a win?

The Washington Nationals have an ATS record of 200-231-1 (46.3%) when playing after a win from 2014-2024. This represents 432 total games over the 11-year period.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals after a win has not been profitable, showing a -11.4% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Nationals in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 46.3% ATS win rate is below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. The -11.4% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than typical league averages, making this a poor betting situation historically.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.