Toronto Blue Jays Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend

The Blue Jays' struggles as small favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual competitive positioning. Toronto has historically been a franchise caught between rebuilding and contending phases, creating situations where the betting market overvalues their talent relative to their execution on the field. When oddsmakers set them as modest favorites, it often reflects respect for their individual player talent rather than their ability to perform cohesively as a team unit. Their organizational approach has frequently emphasized offensive firepower over pitching depth and defensive consistency. This creates a volatile team profile that looks impressive on paper but struggles to deliver consistent results in games they're expected to win. Small favorite situations typically arise against teams with similar records or in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive balance, scenarios where Toronto's talent advantage gets neutralized by superior game planning or situational execution from opponents. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Toronto has shown a pattern of pressing when expectations are moderate rather than high, performing better as significant underdogs where pressure is reduced or heavy favorites where talent disparities are clear. This trend carries the most weight during divisional series and against teams with strong bullpens, where Toronto's offensive advantages get minimized in close games.