The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 203-215-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record203-215-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size419 games
ROI-7.3%
Units Won-30.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201417-21-00.0%-14.6%
201512-18-00.0%-23.6%
201614-21-00.0%-23.6%
201719-22-00.0%-11.5%
201819-18-10.0%-2.0%
201926-16-00.0%+18.2%
202011-15-00.0%-19.2%
202128-18-00.0%+16.2%
202219-22-00.0%-11.5%
202323-21-00.0%-0.2%
202415-23-00.0%-24.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' underwhelming home performance against the spread stems from consistently inflated public expectations at Rogers Centre. Toronto's passionate fanbase and strong attendance figures create betting market inefficiencies, as casual bettors routinely overvalue the home field advantage. The dome environment, while providing climate control, doesn't offer the same atmospheric intensity or strategic advantages found in traditional ballparks, yet oddsmakers and the public continue to price in a premium that the team rarely justifies. Rogers Centre's unique dimensions and artificial turf create a distinctive playing environment that visiting teams adapt to surprisingly well. The consistent playing conditions actually benefit opponents who prepare specifically for the venue's characteristics, while the Blue Jays sometimes struggle with the pressure of elevated home expectations. The organization's tendency to field streaky, power-heavy lineups compounds this issue, as these offensive approaches prove less reliable when facing quality pitching that's been specifically game-planned against familiar surroundings. Sharp bettors should target Toronto home games when they're favored against quality opponents, particularly during high-profile series when public money inflates the lines. This trend becomes most valuable during weekend games and nationally televised matchups when casual betting volume peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as home games?

The Toronto Blue Jays have an ATS record of 203-215-1 in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a win rate of 48.4% against the spread over this 11-year period.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as home games profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays in home games has not been profitable, showing a -7.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against betting expectations at home.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Blue Jays' 48.4% home ATS win rate is below the theoretical 50% break-even point and likely below league average. Their -7.3% ROI suggests they have been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers in home games during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.