The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 63-81-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -16.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +16.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record63-81-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size144 games
ROI-16.5%
Units Won-23.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-4-00.0%-4.5%
201512-3-00.0%+52.7%
20163-7-00.0%-42.7%
20177-9-00.0%-16.5%
20184-7-00.0%-30.6%
20197-4-00.0%+21.5%
20204-11-00.0%-49.1%
20215-11-00.0%-40.3%
20227-9-00.0%-16.5%
20237-11-00.0%-25.8%
20243-5-00.0%-28.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' struggles as road underdogs against division rivals stem from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic disadvantages. Playing in the AL East means facing teams intimately familiar with Toronto's tendencies, particularly their aggressive offensive approach and reliance on power hitting. Division opponents have extensive video and scouting reports that expose the Jays' weaknesses more effectively than unfamiliar teams. Toronto's organizational philosophy has historically emphasized offense over pitching depth, creating vulnerability when their rotation faces hostile environments. The psychological weight of playing meaningful games against teams they see 19 times per season amplifies pressure, especially when the betting market has already identified them as underdogs. The franchise's inconsistent playoff contention during this period has also meant less experience in high-leverage divisional road games. The Jays' home-heavy offensive profile doesn't translate well to pitcher-friendly parks like Tropicana Field or Fenway Park, where their fly-ball tendencies become liabilities. Their bullpen construction has often favored velocity over command, making them susceptible to implosion in tight road games where every mistake gets magnified. This trend carries the most weight during late-season series when divisional standings matter, as the psychological pressure compounds with the strategic familiarity opponents possess.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 63-81-0 ATS record when playing away against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.8% ATS win rate over 144 games.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as away favorites against division rivals has not been profitable. The team shows a -16.5% ROI with a 0.0% win rate in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average of approximately 50% ATS. The Blue Jays' 43.8% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate poor value in this specific betting scenario.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.