The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 11-79-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -76.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +76.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record11-79-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size90 games
ROI-76.7%
Units Won-69.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-3-00.0%-100.0%
20151-3-00.0%-52.3%
20161-8-00.0%-78.8%
20171-11-00.0%-84.1%
20180-5-00.0%-100.0%
20190-6-00.0%-100.0%
20201-9-00.0%-80.9%
20213-7-00.0%-42.7%
20220-5-00.0%-100.0%
20234-11-00.0%-49.1%
20240-11-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' catastrophic performance as road favorites following losses stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and team psychology. Toronto has historically struggled with the mental reset required after defeats, particularly when expectations remain elevated through favorable betting lines. The franchise's tendency toward streaky play becomes magnified on the road, where the comfort of Rogers Centre's controlled environment disappears. This pattern reveals a team that often lacks the veteran leadership necessary to bounce back immediately from adversity while playing away from home. The Blue Jays' offensive-heavy construction means they're frequently favored based on raw talent, but their pitching depth issues become exposed when facing hostile crowds after taking a psychological hit. Road environments amplify the pressure when Toronto enters as the expected winner, creating a perfect storm for underperformance. The betting market consistently overvalues Toronto's talent while underestimating their mental fragility in these specific situations. Sharp bettors should view Blue Jays road favorites after losses as automatic fade opportunities, particularly against divisional opponents who understand these weaknesses. This trend matters most during crucial series where playoff implications heighten the stakes, making the psychological burden even heavier for a franchise historically prone to late-season collapses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Toronto Blue Jays have an 11-79-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 12.2% ATS win rate over 90 total games.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. The strategy shows a -76.7% ROI, meaning you would lose approximately 77 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical league averages, which usually hover around 50% ATS. The Blue Jays' 12.2% win rate in this situation represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.