The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 185-204-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record185-204-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size390 games
ROI-9.2%
Units Won-35.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201415-17-00.0%-10.5%
201519-22-00.0%-11.5%
20167-22-00.0%-53.9%
201718-15-00.0%+4.1%
20189-16-10.0%-31.3%
201924-13-00.0%+23.8%
202017-16-00.0%-1.6%
202128-21-00.0%+9.1%
202216-18-00.0%-10.2%
202320-26-00.0%-17.0%
202412-18-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' struggles after victories stem from a combination of organizational culture and roster construction issues that have persisted across multiple regimes. Toronto has historically built around offensive firepower while maintaining inconsistent pitching depth, creating a volatile team that can explode for big wins but lacks the systematic approach needed for consistent follow-through performances. When the Jays win convincingly, they often do so by overwhelming opponents offensively, which can mask underlying pitching weaknesses that become exposed in subsequent games. The psychological factor plays a significant role as well. Toronto's young core has shown a tendency toward emotional peaks and valleys, riding high after impressive victories but failing to maintain the same intensity level the following day. This pattern became particularly pronounced during their competitive windows when expectations were elevated, as players seemed to press after good performances rather than maintaining their approach. The franchise's inconsistent bullpen management across different seasons has compounded these issues, as relievers used heavily in wins often aren't available or effective in follow-up games. Smart bettors should target betting against Toronto specifically after road wins against division rivals, when travel fatigue combines with the psychological letdown to create the most pronounced fade opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as after a win?

The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 185-204-1 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 47.4% ATS win rate over 390 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays after a win has not been profitable, showing a -9.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Blue Jays in this spot over the 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Blue Jays' 47.4% ATS win rate after wins is below the typical 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. Their -9.2% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than average teams in similar situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.