Texas Rangers Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Texas Rangers are just 9-183-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -91.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +91.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-19-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-18-0 | 0.0% | -90.0% |
| 2016 | 2-16-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2017 | 0-16-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-18-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-16-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2020 | 1-16-0 | 0.0% | -88.8% |
| 2021 | 0-18-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-15-0 | 0.0% | -88.1% |
| 2023 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
| 2024 | 1-19-0 | 0.0% | -90.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rangers' historically poor performance as heavy favorites stems from their organizational identity as a franchise that has rarely possessed the dominant pitching depth required to justify massive spreads. Texas has traditionally built around offensive firepower and hitter-friendly ballparks, creating teams that could score runs but lacked the elite starting rotation and bullpen consistency needed to blow out opponents regularly. When oddsmakers install the Rangers as substantial favorites, it typically occurs against weak opponents during hot streaks or when facing depleted lineups. However, baseball's inherent variance means even inferior teams can scratch across enough runs against Texas's historically mediocre pitching staffs. The Rangers' tendency to rely on high-scoring affairs rather than pitching dominance creates closer games than the massive spreads suggest. The psychological element also plays a role - Texas players and management have historically shown less urgency when heavily favored, leading to flat performances against supposedly overmatched opponents. Their offensive-minded approach often results in feast-or-famine scenarios that don't align with the consistent dominance large favorites should display. This trend matters most when the Rangers are installed as huge favorites against last-place teams or during late-season matchups against clubs that have already been eliminated from contention.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Texas Rangers have a 9-183-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a 4.7% cover rate (9 wins out of 192 total games).
Is betting on the Texas Rangers as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Texas Rangers as large favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -91.0% ROI. This means bettors would have lost approximately 91 cents for every dollar wagered over this 11-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover large spreads around 45-50% of the time. The Rangers' 4.7% cover rate represents one of the worst large favorite trends in modern baseball betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.