Texas Rangers Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Texas Rangers are just 20-86-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -64.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +64.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-10-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2015 | 2-8-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2016 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2017 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 3-11-0 | 0.0% | -59.1% |
| 2019 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2020 | 4-10-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2021 | 1-10-0 | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 2022 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2023 | 1-9-0 | 0.0% | -80.9% |
| 2024 | 3-6-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rangers' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a psychological pattern that has plagued the franchise for years - an inability to bounce back with authority when expectations are highest. This trend reflects deeper organizational issues around mental toughness and clutch performance that have persisted across different rosters and coaching staffs. When Texas loses a game and returns home as favorites, they consistently fail to meet the elevated expectations that come with being favored on their own turf. The pressure to respond immediately after a disappointing performance often leads to pressing at the plate and overthinking on the mound. Rangers hitters have historically struggled with situational hitting in these spots, while their pitching staff tends to nibble around the strike zone rather than attacking hitters aggressively. The franchise's inconsistent development of mental conditioning and game management becomes most apparent in these bounce-back scenarios. Players seem to carry the weight of the previous loss into what should be a fresh opportunity, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of underperformance. Bettors should view Rangers home favorites after losses as prime fade candidates, particularly when the spread is inflated due to public perception of home field advantage. This trend carries the most weight during divisional matchups and weekend series when casual betting action typically inflates the home favorite's line.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Texas Rangers have a 20-86-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 20 of 106 games. This translates to an extremely poor 18.9% ATS win rate in this specific situation.
Is betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorites after a loss is highly unprofitable with a -64.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst betting trends in baseball, consistently failing to cover spreads in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Rangers' 18.9% ATS rate in this spot is exceptionally poor and represents a strong fade opportunity for bettors.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.