The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Texas Rangers are just 38-171-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -65.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +65.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record38-171-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size209 games
ROI-65.3%
Units Won-136.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-15-00.0%-59.8%
20152-16-00.0%-78.8%
20164-22-00.0%-70.6%
20172-10-00.0%-68.2%
20183-20-00.0%-75.1%
20196-17-00.0%-50.2%
20204-12-00.0%-52.3%
20213-13-00.0%-64.2%
20222-10-00.0%-68.2%
20234-20-00.0%-68.2%
20244-16-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rangers' catastrophic performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental disconnect between market perception and road execution capabilities. Texas has historically struggled with the psychological pressure of being expected to win away from home, often playing tentative baseball when the betting public backs them on the road. Their offensive approach tends to become overly aggressive in these spots, leading to poor plate discipline and an inability to manufacture runs in unfamiliar ballparks. The franchise's pitching staff has consistently underperformed in pressure situations away from Arlington, particularly when facing teams they're favored against. These opponents often play with house money mentality, while Rangers pitchers press to justify the line. Texas also shows poor situational hitting on the road when favored, frequently stranding runners in scoring position during crucial moments. Smart bettors should view Rangers road favorite spots as automatic fade opportunities, especially against divisional opponents who know their tendencies well. The psychological burden of expectations away from home has proven too heavy for this organization to bear consistently. This trend carries the most weight when Texas is a moderate road favorite (-130 to -160) against teams with winning records at home, where the pressure-cooker environment amplifies their historical weaknesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as away favorite?

The Texas Rangers have a 38-171-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 18.2% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in a specific situation over this timeframe.

Is betting on the Texas Rangers as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Texas Rangers as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -65.3% ROI from 2014-2024. A $100 bet on every Rangers away favorite game would have resulted in a loss of approximately $653.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Rangers' 18.2% cover rate as away favorites represents an extreme negative outlier in sports betting data.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.