The public often underestimates the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Tampa Bay Rays hold a record of 87-17-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +59.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $62 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record87-17-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size104 games
ROI+59.7%
Units Won+62.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-1-00.0%+52.7%
20154-0-00.0%+90.9%
201614-1-00.0%+78.2%
201710-2-00.0%+59.1%
20183-1-00.0%+43.2%
20195-2-00.0%+36.4%
20208-2-00.0%+52.7%
202114-0-00.0%+90.9%
20227-4-00.0%+21.5%
202314-2-00.0%+67.0%
20244-2-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rays' exceptional performance as home underdogs following victories stems from their organizational culture of exceeding expectations and their strategic approach to roster construction. Tampa Bay has built a reputation as a scrappy, analytically-driven franchise that thrives when doubted by oddsmakers. When they're coming off a win but still getting plus-money at home, it typically indicates the betting market is undervaluing their momentum while overrating their opponent. This scenario often occurs when the Rays face higher-payroll teams or marquee opponents that draw public betting action. The franchise's emphasis on situational matchups and bullpen deployment becomes particularly effective in these spots, as they can strategically navigate through games against supposedly superior competition. Their players have internalized the underdog mentality, performing with extra intensity when the betting market suggests they shouldn't win. The psychological edge of playing at Tropicana Field while carrying positive momentum creates a perfect storm for value. The Rays' analytical front office has historically constructed rosters that perform better than their individual parts suggest, making them particularly dangerous when undervalued. This trend matters most when Tampa Bay is catching plus-money against American League East rivals or high-profile visiting teams that attract heavy public betting interest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Rays's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Tampa Bay Rays have an outstanding 87-17-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents an 83.7% ATS win rate over 104 games.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Rays as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 59.7% ROI. This trend has generated consistent returns over an 11-year period with strong sample size.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams struggle to maintain even 52-55% ATS rates. The Rays' 83.7% ATS rate in this situation is exceptionally rare in sports betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.