The public often underestimates the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Tampa Bay Rays hold a record of 190-40-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +57.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $133 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record190-40-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size230 games
ROI+57.7%
Units Won+132.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201412-5-00.0%+34.8%
201515-3-00.0%+59.1%
201622-2-00.0%+75.0%
201720-3-00.0%+66.0%
201812-4-00.0%+43.2%
201915-3-00.0%+59.1%
202019-4-00.0%+57.7%
202119-2-00.0%+72.7%
202213-8-00.0%+18.2%
202330-2-00.0%+79.0%
202413-4-00.0%+46.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rays' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their organizational philosophy of maximizing value against market inefficiencies. Tampa Bay's front office has built a culture around being underestimated, using advanced analytics to identify spots where public perception lags behind actual team strength. Their pitching staff, anchored by creative bullpen usage and opener strategies, often confuses opposing hitters who haven't seen these unconventional approaches regularly. Tropicana Field's unique characteristics play a crucial role in this success. The dome's catwalks, artificial turf, and intimate dimensions create a significant home field advantage that oddsmakers consistently undervalue. Visiting teams struggle with the facility's quirks while the Rays have mastered playing in these conditions. Additionally, Tampa Bay's roster construction emphasizes versatility and depth over star power, meaning they're rarely as weak as the betting market suggests when facing superior opponents. The psychological edge cannot be overlooked either. This franchise thrives in the underdog role, with players who embrace the "us against the world" mentality that comes with low payrolls and minimal media attention. This trend carries the most weight when the Rays face division rivals or high-profile opponents during day games at home, where the unique ballpark factors and motivated underdogs create maximum betting value.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Rays's ATS record as home underdog?

The Tampa Bay Rays have an exceptional 190-40-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to an 82.6% ATS win rate over 230 games.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as home underdogs has been highly profitable with a 57.7% ROI. This represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Rays' 82.6% ATS rate as home underdogs is exceptionally rare and well above typical expectations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.