The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Tampa Bay Rays are just 70-72-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record70-72-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size142 games
ROI-5.9%
Units Won-8.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-7-00.0%-20.4%
20151-9-00.0%-80.9%
20169-4-00.0%+32.2%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20189-5-00.0%+22.7%
20199-11-00.0%-14.1%
202014-2-00.0%+67.0%
20214-5-00.0%-15.2%
20226-7-00.0%-11.9%
20233-6-00.0%-36.4%
20249-11-00.0%-14.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rays' mediocre road performance against divisional rivals stems from their organizational philosophy of maximizing home-field advantages while operating with payroll constraints. Tampa Bay has historically built their roster around pitching depth and defensive positioning that works exceptionally well at Tropicana Field's unique dimensions, but these advantages evaporate when facing familiar AL East opponents who've studied their tendencies extensively. Division rivals possess intimate knowledge of Tampa Bay's opener strategy, bullpen usage patterns, and defensive shifts, neutralizing the tactical edge that makes the Rays competitive against unfamiliar opponents. The team's reliance on platoon players and matchup-dependent lineups becomes more predictable over 19 games per season against each division foe, allowing opposing managers to counter their moves more effectively. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Playing in hostile AL East environments like Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, the Rays often face motivated crowds and opponents with significantly higher payrolls, creating additional pressure that their young, cost-controlled roster sometimes struggles to handle. Bettors should target fading Tampa Bay on the road against division rivals during the season's final two months, when roster fatigue peaks and opponents are most desperate for crucial wins in tight playoff races.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Rays's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 70-72-0 ATS record when playing away games against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.3% ATS win rate over 142 games.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as away underdogs against division rivals has not been profitable. The -5.9% ROI indicates bettors would have lost money consistently over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 49.3% ATS win rate is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. The negative ROI suggests the Rays have underperformed expectations in this specific situation compared to typical ATS performance.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.