The data suggests caution when backing the St. Louis Cardinals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the St. Louis Cardinals are just 233-238-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record233-238-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size471 games
ROI-5.6%
Units Won-26.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201414-30-00.0%-39.3%
201521-30-00.0%-21.4%
201620-22-00.0%-9.1%
201723-18-00.0%+7.1%
201815-19-00.0%-15.8%
201931-16-00.0%+25.9%
202028-18-00.0%+16.2%
202120-18-00.0%+0.5%
202215-22-00.0%-22.6%
202323-27-00.0%-12.2%
202423-18-00.0%+7.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cardinals' struggles at home following multiple losses stem from a dangerous combination of organizational pressure and fan expectations that can create a suffocating environment at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has cultivated one of baseball's most knowledgeable and demanding fanbases, and when the team returns home after consecutive road defeats, the weight of expectation often exceeds their ability to respond immediately. This psychological burden manifests in pressing at the plate and overthinking on the mound, particularly evident during their worst stretch in 2014 when the team was transitioning from their championship window. The Cardinals' traditional approach of manufacturing runs through small ball becomes less effective when players are gripping their bats too tightly, leading to poor execution in crucial situations. Their pitching staff, typically known for command and location, tends to fall behind in counts more frequently when dealing with the mental pressure of needing to "right the ship" immediately upon returning home. Smart bettors should target the Cardinals as road favorites in their next series after they've shown this pattern, as they often perform better away from the heightened expectations. This trend carries the most weight during mid-season homecomings when playoff positioning becomes critical and the fanbase's anxiety peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the St. Louis Cardinals's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The St. Louis Cardinals have an ATS record of 233-238-0 when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.5% ATS win rate over 471 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the St. Louis Cardinals as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the Cardinals as home favorites after 2+ losses is not profitable, showing a -5.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing St. Louis in this specific situation over the 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 49.5% ATS win rate is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point for ATS betting. The -5.6% ROI indicates underperformance compared to typical home team bounce-back situations, making this a fade-worthy trend for the Cardinals.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.