The data suggests caution when backing the Seattle Mariners in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Seattle Mariners are just 39-161-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -62.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +62.8%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record39-161-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size200 games
ROI-62.8%
Units Won-125.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-11-00.0%-40.3%
20154-14-00.0%-57.6%
20165-20-00.0%-61.8%
20171-12-00.0%-85.3%
20187-19-00.0%-48.6%
20194-14-00.0%-57.6%
20201-14-00.0%-87.3%
20215-15-00.0%-52.3%
20222-11-00.0%-70.6%
20234-13-00.0%-55.1%
20241-18-00.0%-90.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mariners' catastrophic performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and actual road capabilities. Seattle has historically struggled with the psychological pressure of being favored away from home, often playing tight and conservative when expectations are elevated. Their offensive approach becomes particularly problematic on the road, where they've consistently failed to adapt to different ballpark dimensions and opposing pitching staffs that game-plan specifically for their power-heavy lineup. The franchise's organizational culture has long emphasized pitching and defense, creating teams that rely heavily on T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. When forced to play as road favorites, the Mariners often face lineups better suited for their home ballparks, while Seattle's hitters struggle without the familiar backdrop and dimensions they've grown accustomed to. This creates a compounding effect where the team fails to live up to the oddsmaker's confidence, particularly against division rivals who know their tendencies intimately. For bettors, the key insight is to aggressively fade Seattle as road favorites, especially when the line sits between -130 to -160, where the market overvalues their perceived strength. This trend becomes most critical during interleague play and early-season matchups when oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for Seattle's road struggles.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Seattle Mariners's ATS record as away favorite?

The Seattle Mariners have a 39-161-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 39 out of 200 games. This represents a 19.5% cover rate, meaning they've failed to cover the spread 80.5% of the time in this situation.

Is betting on the Seattle Mariners as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Seattle Mariners as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -62.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This means for every $100 wagered, bettors would have lost approximately $62.80 on average.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover the spread around 50% of the time. The Mariners' 19.5% cover rate as away favorites represents one of the worst ATS trends in baseball over this time period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.