The data suggests caution when backing the San Diego Padres in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the San Diego Padres are just 11-48-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -64.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +64.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record11-48-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size59 games
ROI-64.4%
Units Won-38.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-3-00.0%-52.3%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20161-5-00.0%-68.2%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20181-7-00.0%-76.1%
20190-8-00.0%-100.0%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20212-7-00.0%-57.6%
20222-4-00.0%-36.4%
20232-3-00.0%-23.6%
20241-4-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Padres' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their organizational approach to roster management and the unique challenges of West Coast scheduling. San Diego's pitching staff has historically relied heavily on their bullpen depth, but back-to-back games expose the limitations of this strategy when key relievers become unavailable. The team's offensive philosophy, built around patient plate approaches and working deep counts, becomes counterproductive when facing fresh opposing pitchers while their own hitters are mentally and physically drained. Petco Park's marine layer and evening temperatures create additional complications for a tired lineup that struggles to generate early offense. The Padres' front office has consistently prioritized versatility over depth, leaving them vulnerable when regular rotation pieces need extra rest. Their Latin American heavy roster also faces unique circadian rhythm challenges during day-night doubleheaders and quick turnarounds. The psychological pressure of being favored at home while operating on fumes creates a perfect storm for underperformance. Padres hitters tend to press in these situations, abandoning their disciplined approach for aggressive swings that play into opposing pitchers' hands. This trend carries the most weight during summer homestands when the team faces multiple series without off days, particularly against division rivals who know how to exploit San Diego's fatigue-related weaknesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Diego Padres's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The San Diego Padres have an 11-48-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this specific situation.

Is betting on the San Diego Padres as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the San Diego Padres as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The strategy shows a -64.4% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately 64 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical league averages, which generally hover around 50% ATS. The Padres' 18.6% ATS win rate in this situation represents one of the worst betting trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.