The data suggests caution when backing the San Diego Padres in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the San Diego Padres are just 79-391-2 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -67.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +67.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record79-391-2
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size472 games
ROI-67.9%
Units Won-319.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-38-00.0%-90.5%
20154-35-10.0%-80.4%
20167-39-00.0%-71.0%
20178-36-00.0%-65.3%
20187-43-00.0%-73.3%
201913-32-00.0%-44.9%
20203-27-00.0%-80.9%
20219-33-00.0%-59.1%
20227-34-00.0%-67.4%
202311-32-10.0%-51.2%
20248-42-00.0%-69.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Padres' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reflect a franchise historically plagued by inconsistency and mental fragility during pressure moments. When San Diego enters a game as the betting favorite after dropping three or more consecutive contests, the psychological weight of expectations often proves overwhelming for a organization that has rarely sustained success. The team's tendency to press rather than execute fundamentally sound baseball becomes magnified when oddsmakers still view them as the superior side despite recent struggles. San Diego's roster construction over the years has frequently featured talented but mercurial players who lack the veteran leadership necessary to navigate adversity. The franchise's culture of underachievement creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where players second-guess themselves in crucial situations, leading to poor situational hitting and defensive miscues that compound during these bounce-back opportunities. The organization's historical inability to develop consistent starting pitching depth means their starters often lack the confidence to attack the strike zone when carrying the burden of stopping a losing streak. Smart bettors should consistently fade the Padres in these exact scenarios, particularly when they're modest favorites (-110 to -150) in home games where fan expectations add additional pressure to an already fragile clubhouse dynamic.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Diego Padres's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The San Diego Padres have an ATS record of 79-391-2 (16.7% win rate) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball over this period.

Is betting on the San Diego Padres as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Padres as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is highly unprofitable with a -67.9% ROI. This trend has consistently lost money for bettors over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams perform closer to 50% ATS in situational spots. The Padres' 16.7% ATS rate in this situation is an extreme negative outlier.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.