Yordan Alvarez's total bases props present a clear under opportunity with just 36.4% overs across 99 games. The Astros slugger averages 2.36 total bases against a typical 2.5 line, creating a -0.14 edge that has generated +21.5% ROI on unders. This represents a sustainable betting angle on one of baseball's premier power hitters.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between Yordan Alvarez's reputation and his actual total bases production. Despite being viewed as an elite power threat, Alvarez has consistently fallen short of inflated betting lines, hitting the over in just 36 of 99 games. This 36.4% over rate isn't a small sample anomaly—it represents nearly two full seasons of data spanning from May 2023 through September 2024. The -0.14 average differential between his production and the standard 2.5 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in his ceiling rather than his realistic floor. Alvarez's game is built on selective aggression and patient hitting, which often leads to walks and singles that don't accumulate total bases as quickly as casual bettors expect. The +21.5% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a statistical quirk but a genuine market inefficiency. His longest under streak of 8 games shows the consistency of this pattern, while even his hot streaks rarely sustain over production for extended periods. The key insight here is that elite hitters often carry betting premiums that don't match their day-to-day statistical output, particularly in total bases where doubles and homers are required to consistently beat inflated numbers.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 63.6% under rate and +21.5% ROI represent a clear edge that should persist as long as oddsmakers continue overvaluing Alvarez's power ceiling. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as his 2.36 average provides consistent value. The main risk is a prolonged hot streak where Alvarez finds his extra-base groove, but the sample size suggests this approach remains profitable long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 13.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Total Bases prop record all games?
Yordan Alvarez has gone over his total bases prop in just 36 of 99 games (36.4%) from May 2023 to September 2024. His under record of 63-36 represents one of the more reliable trends in baseball props, generating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Yordan Alvarez's total bases props. The 63.6% under rate and +21.5% ROI provide a clear edge, especially when the line is set at 2.5 or higher. His 2.36 average creates consistent value opportunities.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Total Bases all games?
Yordan Alvarez averages 2.36 total bases per game against a typical 2.5 line, creating a -0.14 differential. This gap between his actual production and betting expectations has been remarkably consistent across nearly 100 games of data.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yordan Alvarez total bases unders when the line is 2.5 or higher. The edge is strongest in standard game situations where his patient approach and selective aggression naturally limit total bases accumulation compared to market expectations.