Yordan Alvarez's home run props as a favorite present a compelling under opportunity with just a 27.3% over rate across 11 games. Despite averaging 0.64 home runs versus the typical 0.5 line, the under has delivered a robust 38.8% ROI while overs hemorrhage at -47.9%. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Yordan Alvarez's home run production when Houston enters as favorites. While his 0.64 average suggests consistent power, the 3-8-0 over/under record reveals a systematic mispricing in the market. The -47.9% ROI on overs indicates books are setting lines too optimistically, likely influenced by Alvarez's reputation as one of baseball's premier power hitters. When the Astros are favored, they're typically facing weaker pitching staffs or playing in favorable conditions, yet Alvarez still fails to clear his home run total 72.7% of the time. This suggests that even elite hitters face challenges converting favorable matchups into consistent long balls. The current three-game under streak reinforces this pattern, though it's worth noting his longest over streak reached just two games. The persistence of this trend across different opponents and situations indicates a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and actual performance. While Alvarez remains dangerous in any at-bat, the data suggests books consistently overestimate his home run frequency in games where Houston is expected to win.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 72.7% under rate and 38.8% ROI create clear value, especially with Alvarez currently riding a three-game under streak. Target this bet when Houston is a moderate to heavy favorite against teams with respectable pitching staffs. The main risk is Alvarez's undeniable power potential breaking through in any single game, but the trend's consistency suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs prop record as favorite?
Yordan Alvarez has gone 3-8-0 over/under on home run props when Houston is favored, hitting just 27.3% overs across 11 games. The under has been profitable with a 38.8% ROI while overs lose 47.9%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Home Runs as favorite?
Bet the under on Yordan Alvarez's home runs when Houston is favored. The 72.7% under rate and strong ROI provide clear value, especially during his current three-game under streak.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Home Runs as favorite?
Yordan Alvarez averages 0.64 home runs as a favorite, which is 0.14 above the typical 0.5 line. Despite this positive differential, unders still hit 72.7% of the time, creating betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yordan Alvarez home run unders when Houston is a moderate to heavy favorite, particularly against teams with solid pitching depth. Avoid when facing weak bullpens or in extreme hitter-friendly conditions.