Wilyer Abreu presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, going 0-10 on home run overs with a perfect 0.0% over rate. The Red Sox outfielder has failed to clear 0.5 home runs in every single game over this 10-game stretch, delivering +90.9% ROI for under bettors. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Abreu's complete absence of home runs over this 10-game sample represents more than just bad luck—it reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive profile during the season's final stretch. The 0.0 home run average against a consistent 0.5 line creates a massive -0.5 differential that suggests either diminished power or unfavorable matchup conditions. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its consistency—no mixed results, no near-misses, just complete failure to reach the over in any scenario. The perfect 10-game under streak indicates either a mechanical issue, fatigue from a long season, or strategic changes in his approach that prioritize contact over power. For a player whose home run props are typically priced at 0.5, this level of power drought is exceptional and suggests the market may be slow to adjust to his current form. The -100% ROI on overs tells the complete story—every over bet has been a total loss, while under bettors have profited consistently. This type of sustained power outage often persists longer than casual observers expect, especially late in seasons when players may be dealing with accumulated fatigue or minor injuries that affect their ability to turn on pitches.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Abreu's complete power outage over 10 games creates an exceptional under opportunity that the market hasn't fully recognized. The 0.0% over rate with consistent 0.5 lines suggests books are pricing based on season-long data rather than current form. Target this prop in any matchup, as the trend shows no situational variance. Main risk is positive regression, but the sustained nature of this drought suggests underlying issues beyond variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wilyer Abreu's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Abreu has gone 0-10 on home run overs in his last 10 games, posting a 0.0% over rate. He's failed to hit a single home run during this stretch, making every over bet a complete loss while delivering consistent profits for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wilyer Abreu Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Abreu's complete power outage over 10 games with 0.0% overs and +90.9% under ROI creates exceptional value. The sustained drought suggests underlying issues beyond normal variance, making unders the clear play.
What's Wilyer Abreu's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Abreu is averaging exactly 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line. This creates a massive -0.5 differential, meaning he's falling half a home run short of expectations in every single game during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Abreu home run unders in any situation currently, as the 10-game drought shows no matchup dependency. Target games with consistent 0.5 lines where books haven't adjusted to his current form, especially against quality pitching that could extend the power outage.